Just the Stats: Let’s Talk Playoff Baseball

The following statistics are completely true pieces of information. Use them at your own risk. Results may vary.

Editor’s Note (Tim): Let’s welcome Matt (Stat) Tardiff to the ChinMusicPod. As another Stonehill alum who loves sports, and is infinitely better at math that anyone we know, Matt’s insight on sports statistical analysis is second to none. 

Clayton Kershaw Can Pitch In October
If you’re following @StatTardiff on Twitter (which you’re likely not, and definitely should be), then you know that Clayton Kershaw has been pitching better than we’re giving him credit for. After his seven-inning, scoreless performance in Game 2 of the NLCS, Kershaw has a career postseason 2.92 FIP despite a 4.39 ERA. The gap is largely due to a 61.9% strand rate and the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen doing him very few favors, so the next time you’re ready to start bashing the best pitcher on the planet, make sure he actually deserves it.

Andrew Miller Can Pitch Anywhere
The Cleveland Indians’ secret very-conspicuous weapon has earned self-fulfilling-prophecy status this postseason. Everyone talks about how filthy this guy is, he goes out and is filthy, and everyone talks about it some more. This postseason, Miller has faced 33 batters; 20 of them have struck out, seven others were retired, and six reached base. If this were a start, Miller would have posted a Game Score of 97, which would have tied for the second-best Game Score in MLB this season. Except that Miller has done it against two of the best offenses in the league (Red Sox and Blue Jays), in the postseason.

Javy Baez Is Money
It’s too early to give anyone MVP of the Postseason honors (which don’t exist anyway), but that hasn’t stopped Javy Baez from coming up huge for the Chicago Cubs. He provided the lone run in a Game 1 NLDS win against the Giants, and the winning run in Game 4, both with two strikes. In the NLDS, Baez’ Win Probability Added was +0.68, meaning that he was worth a little more than two-thirds of a win for the Cubs. If he keeps it up, and the Cubs win the last game of the season, we may have to create an MVP of the Postseason award.